On Monday, November 2, 2015, the first Chinese larger-airliner aircraft rolled out - the C919. This aircraft was built by COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) and will compete with the A320 and the B737, seating about 168 passengers. Although the hope is for western certification, the C919 has yet to be FAA-certified, currently limiting the countries where the aircraft can operate. Given this information, please answer the following questions:
- Do you believe that the C919 will ever receive FAA certification? Why or why not?
I do not believe that the C919 will ever receive FAA certification or at least not in the near future. Time frame of about 8 to 10 year. China is very inexperienced in building aircraft, plain and simple. The FAA certification for the C919 will take some time. Its possible that the FAA could certify the plane after the C919 enters service and complies with all relative airworthiness and manufactures standards. (Press, A) Until then, the C919 will definitely not be flying in or into the United States.
2) For sake of argument, if the C919 receives FAA certification, what challenges do you see for US carriers? Look at various aspects - for example, what would in mean in terms of aircraft purchases? What would it mean in terms of public perception?
The challenges I see for U.S. carriers is if they would want to buy these new aircraft. From a business perspective, competition of three major manufactures, instead of the current two, could drive down prices for the carriers. In my own opinion though, I just do not see U.S. carriers buying from China. U.S. carriers already have a deep and personal relationship with their manufactures. Im sure if they broke that relationship with hopes to save a couple million dollars, people would not be happy. Many American passengers could also get mixed views and feelings about this new Chinese carrier selling aircraft to the United States. China already has the perception in America as making cheap and unreliable products and to someone seeing China selling aircraft to United States carriers, it could cause them to not want to fly with these carriers.
3) Discuss COMAC a little and its relationship with the Chinese airlines and the Chinese government. Are there other aircraft in the works? If so, what are the specifics?
COMAC stands for Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China which is a state-owned aerospace manufacture that is based in Shanghai, China. (Comac.)The company was created by the government to be a competitor with western manufactures such as Airbus and Boeing. The government doesn't want to be so reliable on these companies to service their economic needs so they created COMAC to help combat these needs. (Comac.)
The first COMAC aircraft that was built is called the ARJ-21 and it has just recently made its first commercial flight from Chengdu in central China to Shanghai.(Riva, A) The ARJ-21 is a passenger jet that sits up to 90 people. It has been a slow and steady process to get the ARJ-21 into service. It has been about eight years from first flight to ready for service. Only six have been produced since 2008. (Riva, A)
4) If this aircraft were to receive FAA certification, do you feel that other companies would enter the market as competitors to Boeing and Airbus?
No way! Boeing and Airbus have a long line of experience designing and manufacturing airplanes. The only way I see COMAC competing with the airlines is if the price of their airplanes are significantly lower in price. Then It would be up to the Airlines if they would want to buy the airplanes and then pay for all the new training for pilots to learn and get type-rated in these new aircraft. There is a lot that makes up an airplane. Much more than just being able to takeoff and land on a runway. According to Richard Aboulafia in an article titled China's C919: Big Hat, No Cattle, China still hasn’t figured out how to protect intellectual property rights which in turn means that the C919 isn't likely to have the latest in avionics equipment. (Bertorelli, P.) China still has a long way to go before they become a serous competitor with Boeing or Airbus.
5) Finally, has Boeing or Airbus responded to this rollout in any way?
Both Boeing and Airbus have responded to the rollout. Boeing and Airbus recently decided to re-engine their aircraft giving birth too the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX. This takes away the economic advantage that the C919 had over the companies.
References
Bertorelli, P. (2015, November 04). China's C919: Big Hat, No Cattle. Retrieved March 03, 2017, from http://www.avweb.com/blogs/insider/Chinas-C919-Big-Hat-No-Cattle-225136-1.html
Press, A. (n.d.). China has built this plane to go head-to-head with Boeing and Airbus. Retrieved March 03, 2017, from http://www.thejournal.ie/comac-c919-2421545-Nov2015/
No fear of C919 for a generation. (2015, November 03). Retrieved March 04, 2017, from https://leehamnews.com/2015/11/04/no-fear-of-c919-for-a-generation/
Govindasamy, S., & Miller, M. (2015, October 21). Exclusive: China-made regional jet set for delivery, but no U.S. certification. Retrieved March 04, 2017, from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-aircraft-arj21-exclusive-idUSKCN0SF2XN20151021
Comac. (2017, February 22). Retrieved March 04, 2017, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac
Riva, A. (2016, June 28). China just flew its first passenger jet - and it's a clunker. Retrieved March 04, 2017, from https://news.vice.com/article/china-just-flew-its-first-passenger-jetand-its-a-clunker
Hey Evan, I really enjoyed reading this blog. I can tell just how enthusiastic you are about this topic. However, with regards to the first question, I do think that the C919 will receive FAA certification. I know this is all a matter of opinion, but I do believe that China has the resources and money to make their airplane a reality for their people. That first question was our only time where we weren't on the same page, and I absolutely agree with you that no one else will be competition for Boeing or Airbus anytime soon. Comac could be competition because the lower price is their main selling point, but they could soon be the cheap option, with two other powerhouses in the game. These companies will dominate the future of the industry.
ReplyDeleteEvan, I would have to disagree with you! I do believe that China will get the FAA certification that it needs so they can start competing with Boeing and Airbus! However, I do appreciate your insight and opinion on why you don't think they will get certification. Great read!
ReplyDeleteHey Evan, I agree with your time frame of about 8 to 10 years before the C919 receives certification. I think it will be at least that long before we see them in U.S. flight operations. I also agree that Comac will have trouble competing in the U.S. economy.
ReplyDeleteEvan I would agree with your initial statement of the C919 ever receiving FAA approval, as I found that the FAA really frowns upon certifying any manufacturer that has not let them in from the beginning of the process all the way to the finish. I would also agree that the current US carriers would not risk the lost of decade old relationships to try and save a few million dollars, with an untried aircraft.The Chinese perception is also very true I deal with that on a daily basis selling auto parts.
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